The aftermath of NY-26, looking ahead to 2012

By Michael J.W. Stickings

A few quick hits as we all try to sort out the meaning of yesterday's Democratic victory in New York's heavily Republican 26th Congressional District:

Politico: "Have Democrats cracked the code for 2012?"

Nate Silver, NYT/538: "Six Months After Midterm Disaster, Hopeful Signs for Democrats."

Steve Benen sums it up: "What we saw in Buffalo was a test -- how is the public responding to the GOP's far-right agenda in Congress? It's a test Republicans failed."

Here's what I wrote last night, just after the race was called for Hochul:

Sure, a number of factors went into Hochul's victory, but, again, a lot of it had to do with the Ryan plan and, more broadly, the Republicans right-wing agenda. That's what Republicans were touting. That's what they were making so public. That's what they wanted to define them. Well, it failed -- once people learned about it, they recoiled. And in this heavily Republican district in Western New York, a Democrat, helped a little bit but not much by a Tea Party challenger taking votes away from the Republican, has swept to victory.

There's no guarantee, of course, that this is how things will play out in November 2012, and a whole lot can change between now and then, but that doesn't mean this wasn't a hugely significant and revealing result that may just be an indicator of things to come.

**********

And, of course, the Senate yesterday rejected Paul Ryan's budget, which is now Republican orthodoxy.

The vote was 57-40 against, with five Republicans (Brown, Collins, Snowe, and Murkowski, who oppose it, and Paul, who thinks it doesn't go far enough) siding with the Democratic majority. 

What this means is that Republicans voted 41 to 4 to destroy Medicare. As TPM's Brian Beutler observes:

[T]he roll call illustrates that Medicare privatization -- along with deep cuts to Medicaid and other social services -- remains the consensus position of the GOP despite the growing political backlash against them.

And they'll be running on this in 2012 (while attacking the Democrats from the left and arguing that they're the ones who will protect Medicare from Democratic cuts, as utterly dishonest as this would be). 

Good times ahead.

In your face, Teabaggers! (redux)

By Carl 

The standard mantra of the Republican party has been to cut entitlement programs and keep taxes low because that's what the rabble want, right? 

Uh-huh! 

While well aware that there were political risks, many Republicans went into this year convinced that the rapid growth of the national debt had changed the public mood when it came to tackling the entitlement programs, starting with Medicare, the biggest driver of projected future deficits. In an ambitious budget plan written by Representative Paul D. Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, House Republicans embraced a proposal that would convert Medicare into a subsidized program for the private insurance market.

Even after Tuesday night's loss in the New York special election, in a district Republicans had held for decades, some Republicans remain chin out, calling the Ryan plan much needed medicine that the public will eventually embrace.

Others up for reelection, and some of those running for president, will not firmly commit themselves one way or another. And a small but growing number are saying no. 

The "loss" the Times refers to is the victory of Democrat Kathy Hochul over a split GOP ticket of Jane Corwin and Jack Davis, a Teabagger in one of the most conservative districts in the country, much less New York State. The percentage split 47-43-9, makes the race seem closer than it was. In truth, the Republican budget proposal was defeated 56-43 (adding Davis' and Hochul's totals together, which, as Nate Silver points out, ain't too far from the truth).

Damn. Even President Obama couldn't pull off that stunning a victory! And to top it all off, Corwin had visits from John Boener and Eric Cantor to try to salvage her campaign, all for nought. Talk about rubbing noses in it!

So there's a strategy here for Democrats to take back the House, believe it or not, but it's going to require quite a bit of work and quite a bit of money to offset the Citizen's United debacle. For one thing, the first step is the one already being contemplated: Force an up-or-down vote in the Senate on Medicare reform.

And there's not a ghost of a chance this could be filibustered away. After all, it's the centerpiece of the Republican legislative agenda. Can you imagine a Senator being dumb enough to tell Paul Ryan to fuck off?

Even voting against the plan will raise hackles for Senators like Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins, who will undoubtedly face a tough, Koch-financed primary challenge for re-election if they do.

Sort of fun watching these asshats twist in the wind. When you don't get it, you deserve to have it stuffed down your throat, I suppose.

(Cross-posted to Simply Left Behind.)

Live-blogging the 2011 NY-26 special election

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Okay, let's do some live-blogging -- with American Idol in the background (not my choice, I'd rather have the Jays-Yanks game on, though I admit I'm also interested in how Hines Ward does on Dancing With the Stars).

8:34 pm: The Buffalo News is the place to go for election coverage tonight. The national media are all over this story, of course, but it's good to get the local perspective. And I say that as a Torontonian -- Buffalo is local to us. And the News has a running blog right on its main page. (I've submitted a couple of questions/comments.)

8:36 pm: Jon Chait notes that the Tea Party candidate, Jack Davis, isn't really playing the spoiler. He's running on an economic populism platform, "emphasizing economic protectionism." In other words, he's running on the Ross Perot platform, and the numbers show he has support across the spectrum -- leaning to the right but not so much that all of his supporters would vote Republican were he not in the race. What this means is that Hochul (pictured here), the Democrat, is doing astoundingly well to have been up in the polls. It's not exactly a Hochul-Corwin race, but it's close to that, which means the Democrat and Republicans are on fairly even terms. And the Democrat, in this highly Republican district, appears to be ahead. (Though of course we'll have to see what the actual results are.)

8:41 pm: What to watch, according to Politico. This afternoon, Richard Barry, my friend and associate editor of this humble blog, said that his gut was telling him Corwin would win. He usually knows what he's talking about, and his political instincts are generally on the mark. Needless to say, though, I hope he's horribly wrong.

8:42 pm: In other words, the Republican spin, which is already that a Corwin loss would be because Davis, is simply wrong (and, of course, dishonest).

8:48 pm: I continue to contend that this is a significant election (even if some pundits are being rather more cautious). Maybe not a perfect harbinger of things to come but at least an indicator of where things might be headed in 2012. It's also not simply a referendum on the Republicans' right-wing agenda, and specifically Ryan's budget (and anti-Medicare) plan, but that's certainly part of it, and what's abundantly clear is that voters are rejecting it. The Democrats will no doubt continue to press the issue and tie Republicans to the plan, while Republicans will be split between those who demand that the plan be party orthodoxy from which deviation/dissent is not tolerated (as we saw recently with Gingrich) and those who, looking at the polls and thinking of their electoral chances (and careers) run away from it.

8:52 pm: I read earlier that turnout seems to be very good today. It'll be interesting to see the numbers, but high turnout should favour Hochul (i.e., change, which generally attracts more enthusiasm than the status quo). 

8:58 pm: Alright, polls close in two minutes... 

8:59 pm: Uh-oh. The News, on its running blog, is reporting high turnout in Republican-heavy rural counties and low turnout in Democratic-leaning urban/suburban counties like Erie and Niagara. Not good.

9:00 pm: Even if so much of this vote is about the unpopularity of the Ryan plan, it's telling that Hochul has been presenting herself as an independent. That's what you have to do in such a Republican district. 

9:02 pm: Awfully interesting that Corwin, according to the News, "this afternoon obtained a court order from State Supreme Court Justice Russell P. Buscaglia barring a certification of a winner in the special 26th Congressional District race pending a show-cause hearing before him later this week." What Corwin and the Republicans certainly don't want is for Hochul to be declared the winner of what is anticipated to be a close vote. A spokesman for Corwin said that "we want to make sure that every legal vote is counted fairly and accurately," but I wonder, is there really any good reason for this? I'm suspicious.

9:18 pm: I love Hines Ward.

9:19 pm: Early returns coming in. Nothing much to report. Results should start coming in more quickly around 9:30. 

9:23 pm: In the end, given low turnout generally, this could all come down to GOTV. And Corwin certainly had something of an advantage in a heavily Republican district. 

9:24 pm: Yes, Ms. Corwin, you made some major missteps. But the problem isn't just that you didn't effectively address the Medicare issue early on, it's that you're a Republican who supports the party's unpopular budget agenda. And you're running at a time when the Republican name is toxic.

9:27 pm: 14 percent of precincts reporting, Hochul up 46-43 over Corwin. For what it's worth this early on.

9:32 pm: From the News: "The theme to Rocky is playing here at Corwin headquarters. Some might consider a song about underdogs an odd choice for a Republican running in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 27,000 voters." Odd indeed. 

9:37 pm: A third of the way through. With 33 percent reporting, it's 48-42 for Hochul. 

9:42 pm: Looks like results will come in slowly. Might not know much until 11. 

9:48 pm: Although we're already up to 57 percent reporting. 47-43 for Hochul. 

Richard K. Barry: "I see that Maine Republican Senator Olympia Snowe has joined the other GOP senator from Maine Susan Collins and Mass GOP senator Scott Brown in saying she will vote against the Ryan budget plan. No matter what happens tonight in the NY-26th, a lot of Republicans are going to be looking for ways to step away from these destructive Medicare measures."

Richard K. Barry: "New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Bill Clinton did robocalls into the NY-26. I really wonder if those things have any impact. Would it really matter to me if Bill Clinton's voice was on my answering machine? Probably not." 

10:04 pm: Now it's just the waiting game...

Richard K. Barry: "Numbers look good for Hochul but it's always hard to know how things are going without knowing which precincts have reported. Jack Davis is at 8%. Win or lose this is a terrible night for Republicans. No way to paint this as anything other than what it is, a referendum on the Ryan budget plan. Just called for Hochul.

10:05 pm: Well, no more waiting. It has indeed been called, by the AP and MSNBC and I assume shortly everyone else.

HOCHUL WINS!

10:06 pm: Honestly, how incredible is this? Think back to last November. The Republicans took back the House, reduced the Dems' majority in the Senate, and looked like they had all the momentum, with Obama and the Democrats clearly on the defensive. And then... The Democrats pulled out a few victories during the lame-duck period, including DADT repeal, and Obama seemed to emerge virtually unscathed even after calling the election a shellacking. Well, look where we are now!

Sure, a number of factors went into Hochul's victory, but, again, a lot of it had to do with the Ryan plan and, more broadly, the Republicans right-wing agenda. That's what Republicans were touting. That's what they were making so public. That's what they wanted to define them. Well, it failed -- once people learned about it, they recoiled. And in this heavily Republican district in Western New York, a Democrat, helped a little bit but not much by a Tea Party challenger taking votes away from the Republican, has swept to victory.

And, it would appear, a fairly decisive victory. With 83 percent reporting, Hochul is up 48-43. Davis is at 8 percent, and so has more support than the difference between Hochul and Corwin, but, again, from what the polls were saying it's not like all of Davis's supporters would have voted Republican. In other words, even in a straight Democrat-Republican race, Hochul would likely have prevailed.

Richard K. Barry is ecstatic. As am I. Awesome!!!

10:20 pm: Okay, well, I guess that's it for us tonight. Hochul should be giving her victory speech shortly. Thanks for being here. It was a fun few hours that ended extremely well.

Take care, everyone.

Today is the day for NY-26: Voters head to the polls in special election

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Yes, it's today, at long last, the special election in New York's 26th Congressional District to replace Republican Chris Lee, who resigned earlier this year.

I wrote about the election here and here, but let me explain again what's going on here:

In a heavily Republican district in Western New York, the combination of a Tea Party challenger (Jack Davis) and a Republican who supported Paul Ryan's deeply unpopular anti-Medicare plan (Jane Corwin) have given the Democrat (Kathy Hochul) a great chance to win. Indeed, the latest polling gives Hochul a six-point lead over Corwin, 42 to 35, with Davis in third with 13.

It seems incredible, when you think about it, until you realize that this special election has essentially become a referendum of national proportions and a key indicator for where things might be headed in 2012. It's not all about Ryan and the Republicans' radical right-wing budget plans, as I've written, but there's enough of that to suggest that the Republicans may be in trouble, with voters coming to learn of those plans and turning away in disgust, particularly independents.

Sure, Corwin might very well win a head-to-head race against Hochul, but it would be close (as it is wrong to assume that she would pick up all of Davis's support), and, again, this is a heavily Republican district, a "safe" seat that should stay GOP. It would be enough, in a way, just for Hochul, or any Democrat, to put in a good showing, to make it a competitive race. The fact that she's well ahead in the polls is incredibly significant, both in local and national terms, the local and national essentially merging here.

And the fact that she might just win...

Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. If you're in NY-26, make sure you get out to vote.

Let's hope Hochul, who certainly has our full support, pulls this out. It would be a great victory for her, as well as for the Democratic Party and for efforts to reject the right-wing Republican agenda.

NY-26: As shocking as it seems, could the Democrats actually win this?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I've been meaning to do an update post on the NY-26 special election, set for May 24. I wrote about it last month, noting that what is basically a safe Republican seat in suburban Buffalo (and small-town and rural Western New York) had turned into a toss-up as a result of a divide on the right, with a Tea Partier, Jack Davis, challenging the Republican candidate, Jane Corwin, with the Democrat, Kathy Hochul, not far behind and certainly within striking distance.

Well, while Corwin is certainly conservative enough to appeal broadly across the Republican spectrum and while she certainly has significant Tea Party support of her own, The Rothenberg Political Report has now moved the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic":

Both parties agree that the race remains close – "within the margin of error" is the phrase most often used – and Republican Jane Corwin certainly has a chance to energize and turnout GOP voters in this Republican-leaning district. But Democrats seem more enthusiastic right now.

After a series of focused attacks in the paid and earned media, Republicans apparently have succeeded in bringing down self-proclaimed Tea Party candidate Jack Davis's numbers to a place where the race should be winnable for Corwin.

But those one-time Davis voters are not going immediately to Corwin, raising new doubts about the Republican’s ability to grow her support in the final week. More importantly, Hochul appears to have solidified her image and even increased her share of the vote.

What's interesting is that this local race is essentially national in terms of issues and is thus a possible indicator of where things might go in 2012:

Democrats have been pounding Corwin for supporting Wisconsin Cong. Paul Ryan's budget, including dramatic changes to Medicare. Those attacks apparently have made it difficult for Corwin to attract disaffected Davis voters. 

It's not all about Ryan and the Republicans' radical right-wing budget plans, but there's enough of that to suggest that the Republicans may be in trouble, with voters coming to learn of those plans and turning away in disgust, particularly independents.

And if the Tea Party, or at least the part of it that refuses to be absorbed completely into and/or co-opted by the GOP, continues to throw up right-wing candidates that eat away at Republican support, as it may well do all across the country, the prospects for Democrats will be even better, with even fairly safe Republican seats turned into competitive races, like NY-26, seats that might just flip.

Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District and the impact of Paul Ryan's plan to privatize Medicare

By Richard K. Barry

I am not going to say that GOP rock star Paul Ryan could be in any real trouble holding onto his Congressional seat, Wisconsin's 1st, in the 2012 election. He's been winning the thing pretty handily since he first ran in 1998. He didn't even really break a sweat in 2008 when Obama was taking the country by storm, winning against Democratic challenger Marge Krupp by a 64%-34% margin.

It is worth noting, though, that the Wisconsin 1st has been a swing district in presidential elections having gone to George W. Bush with 53% of the vote in 2004 and then to Obama in 2008 with 51.4%. From 1971 to 1995 the Democrats held the seat, most of the time with Les Aspin (1971-1993) and for a couple of years with Peter Barca (1993-1995), before Mark Neumann won and help it for the GOP from 1995 to 1999 and then came Ryan. So, a little back-and-forthing there and as recently as 2008 a narrow win by Obama for the Dems.

Everyone knows it's difficult to unseat incumbents and Mr. Ryan has made a bit of a name for himself, but, as we know, more recently, the news has not been all good. When supposedly safe members are taken down it is not uncommon for it to be the result of a specific and voter energizing issue - like privatizing Medicare. And let us remember that Paul Ryan is not just a member of a party thinking about doing that; he's the prime architect.

Just for a moment, let's turn our attention to what's going on in the special election in the New York 26th Congressional district to be held May 24th. This is the seat vacated by Republican Chris Lee in February, the man who couldn't seem to keep his shirt on (long story). This should be a safe seat for Republicans but for the fact that a Tea Party challenger, Jack Davis, is threatening to take votes away from the Republican nominee, Jane Corwin, and perhaps let the Democrat, Kathy Hochul, come up the middle. The latest poll from Sienna College has Corwin at 36%, Hochul at 31% and Davis 23% with local media reporting that the race is tightening. The interesting part is that 59% of those polled don't approve of the changes to Medicare that Ryan is spearheading.

I'm not saying there is going to be a Tea Party challenger in the Wisconsin 1st, unless something really weird happens like Ryan aggressively rejecting his own budget plan. No, I'm just saying this is a great issue for a prospective challenger and Ryan represents a district that doesn't mind voting for the Democrats every now and again, especially if there is a signature issue to motivate them and if a charismatic president is running for reelection on the Democratic line.

I am quite open to being told that there are all sorts of local reasons why this could never, ever, under any circumstances, happen. At the very least, it seems worth a conversation.

(Cross-posted to Lippmann's Ghost.)