Tarryl Clark post to the Daily Kos: Michele Bachmann "sound bites"

Clark is "headed out to the Kos," that's where a lot of the national netroots support for her challenge will come from (she hopes.) Excerpts:

For the past few years, Representative Michele Bachmann has been a hot topic on DailyKos and across the blogosphere.

I'm hoping that, with your help, we can put an end to that in November, 2010...

...I'll be coming to Netroots Nation this week, to talk to all of you about how I plan to win this campaign, and how you can join me. I'll be posting another diary during my time there, talking more about the campaign ahead and the issues at stake for the residents of Minnesota's 6th District.

Because as much as everyone has enjoyed talking about Michele Bachmann, I'm looking forward to talking about something else come November, 2010.

What's Netroots Nation, you ask? Well, that's kind of like the national convention for liberal and progressive bloggers. Clark is almost sure to go over well there. All she has to do is go to the podium, open up her mouth and say "Hello, I'm Tarryl Clark and I'm the Democrat running to defeat Michele Bachmann--" That's all she has to say, to get an ovation from that crowd. That's it.

Read the full post to the Kos, here.

Michele Bachmann news links tonight

Tonight, it looks like journalists with real jobs are just recycling the same Politico article. They keep talking about a Bachmann staffer named "Michelle Martson", mentioned in the Politico article that these reporters seem to be re-typing. (Bachmann chief of staff gives out her name to the public as "Michelle MARSTON, so tonight we have a chance to see how quickly a Politico spelling and story get recycled by other reporters.)

Here is the original Politico article, which is actually pretty good. It claims that Michele is now "Public Enemy Number 1," with Dems--and explains why.

Then we have an article that seems to have been based on that article. According to the Examiner, she may be the new Sarah Palin. This one's kind of amusing, because the writer's tone indicates that she just heard of this person Bachmann. (The author reports that Bachmann has emerged as a "possible" target of the left's ire. And the author uses the mindless label "social conservative" to describe Bachmann's politics; always a bad sign.)

One of the "Godzillas" of news gathering, the United Press International, lobs in the report from Politico, noting that Michele's in for a fight next year. UPI reports on the Sixth District:

Bachmann's chief of staff, Michelle Martson (sic), said the congresswoman likely holds a high spot on Democrats' list of possible political targets given her open stances on key issues such as global warming, the Politico reported Saturday.

"She's definitely somewhere up there," Martson said.

That's right, she is, "Martson." In the same article, Minnesota Republican political mastermind Michael Brodkorb opines on *why* Democrats don't like Bachmann:

"I think she probably frustrates them because she's able to win every time," he told the Politico.

That's one reason she frustrates Dems, Michael--the other reason is that she's a notorious nut, bigot and liar serving in the U.S. Congress. That, too, pissed Dems off.

The UPI article also identifies Mr. Brodkorb as "Minnesota Republican Party of Democratic deputy chairman." I have never heard of such an office, and I don't understand this title they have given to him. But they spelled his name right, I think.

Finally: Harold Pollack, a New Republic's special correspondent on health care issues writes a thoughtful piece called "Have You No Decency?" (The title of the article compares the integrity of Bachmann and Palin to that of McCarthy.) Pollack takes Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann to task for spreading disinformation about what's in the health care reform bill. It's a good article that tries to refute the lies. Excerpts:

...To be clear, it is downright evil to establish a “death panel” that decides who is allowed to live based on their “level of productivity in society” (as Sarah Palin claims the health care plan does.) Less clear is what the heck Palin or Bachmann are talking about. I can’t find the words “death panel” in any administration position paper, the stimulus package, or the House and Senate draft health reform bills. Don’t take my word for it. Read the bills...

Another excerpt:

...Palin and Bachmann remind no one of Hillary Clinton in their success in grasping complex policy issues, or in their desire to do so. It may be too much to expect them to trace the origin and veracity of these talking points. These originate in a New York Post op-ed by Betsy McCaughey, which Bachmann essentially recites on the House floor...

...and the article has a link to Bachmann's speech on the House floor. Finally:

...publicity-seeking politicians subtract a lot from these conversations. Palin, Bachmann, and others score cheap points by scaring people and by spreading falsehoods. Their disrespect goes beyond their own political base to those whose views they so recklessly misconstrue...

Michele Bachmann v. Bob Anderson next year?

This is just an opinion piece, no new links.

But you guys all understand, don't you--that "it doesn't have to be Bob Anderson running a third party candidacy" to guarantee a split next year that puts Michele back in office?"

Sometimes I think the professional journalists who are trying to play catch-up with us here on Dump Bachmann--don't understand that. It doesn't have to be "Bob Anderson, himself" who runs next year's third party candidacy, in order to deliver the district back to Bachmann.

No, no, no, if that's what you think. Some professional journalists are approaching Bob Anderson and asking him if *he'll* abide by the endorsement of the IP, next time, whether or not *he* will run.

The answers to those questions could be interesting--but when I read this stuff, I worry. I worry that the pro reporters don't understand, that they think that if Anderson agrees to abide by an endorsement--there won't be an important third party candidacy next year that delivers the race to Bachmann." You people, who read Dump Bachmann--*you* know that's not true and doesn't even follow logically, right?

Bob Anderson, in and of himself, is not important. Not at all. He has no perceptible plans or regular support. He doesn't have the money to conduct a campaign, he doesn't have any leadership experience in government. My suspicion is that Bob is probably sympathetic to a Bachmann win. He likes the idea of bringing sectarian religion into public schools and I'm thinking he's pro-life. So if he enters the race again, I suspect his private agenda for doing so involves ensuring a Bachmann victory.

But suppose Bob does agree to abide by an IP endorsement, and not run? What's to prevent a Bachmann sympathizer from running a third party candidacy next year--maverick, unendorsed, just like Bob Anderson's--to ensure a Bachmann victory by attracting a significant percentage of independent voters?

Do the professional journalists who interview Anderson think that *that* CAN'T happen next year, if Bob Anderson *doesn't* run? Do they think that Bob Anderson's got some "personal magic, akin to the Kennedy charisma" that makes him the ONLY person who could possibly pull off this spoiler thing?

If I were the Bachmann people--cynical, deceitful as a matter of principle--I'd be trying to jump-start this "third party candidacy thing" right now. Sooner. It's a terrific weapon in the Bachmann arsenal. It shaved *just two or three more* percentage points in votes from the electorate, last time--and that was enough to return her to office.

And no--it doesn't have to be "Bob Anderson," to run as a third candidate courting independent voters. It could be "Sven Anderson," or "Barb Olson," or "John Binkowski," or "Harry Potter." Practically any one of you reading this, could run a third party candidacy next year that would help to ensure the re-election of MB.

Someone, please explain this to Minnesota's political editors and journalists. They won't listen if it's me explaining it to them.

Strib article on the Sixth District Race

Pat Doyle, sent out to cover the race against Bachmann, comes back with this. Some good background on the upcoming race, some lovely pictures of the candidates.

And former candidates. Elwyn Tinklenberg's picture is there, but no picture of Bob Anderson--whose maverick, unendorsed Independence Party candidacy picked up ten per cent of the electorate last time and cost Tinklenberg the race.

Doyle reports that the district has "an independent streak" and that former candidate Tinklenberg received the Independence Party's endorsement. But Doyle doesn't report the fact that a maverick candidacy by someone running as "the Independence Party candidate" can keep Bachmann in office for another term, next time around. I don't know if Doyle leaves that out on purpose, or if Doyle just doesn't know, or if the people Doyle interviews are trying to keep Doyle "in the dark" about what's actually going on in the race Doyle's reporting on.

But the Strib has got to start reporting what readers and politicians already know about this race, if they want to stay "au courant" with the news. Tonight I'm going to email Pat Doyle Aubrey Immelman's profile of Sixth District voter demographics. This will be an attempt to supply Pat and Strib editors with some much needed information about why Bachmann wins. Apparently nobody else wants to tell the Strib this important news.

Here's the part that Doyle and the Strib editors need to learn (by heart):

For historical perspective on the strength of the IP in 6th District congressional races, Dan Becker won 7.5 percent of the vote in 2002; John Binkowski gained 7.8 percent in 2006; and in 2008 Bob Anderson got 10% of the vote. The performance of third-party candidates in the 6th appears to be trending upward. Realistically, it’s difficult to see any plausible scenario in which a Democrat beats Bachmann with a third-party name on the ballot.

Some Democrats have accused the IP of playing a “spoiler” role in 6th District congressional races, throwing the race to the Republican candidate. However, as long as the IP enjoys major-party status in Minnesota (winning at least 5 percent of the vote in statewide races), it’s easy to get ballot access on the IP line. Thus, it’s simply realistic to assume that someone will file as an IP candidate in the 2010 election, whether he or she has the IP endorsement or not – and prospective Democratic candidates should plan accordingly.

Immelman: the voting patterns in the Sixth District, and why Bachmann gets elected

Aubrey Immelman is a political candidate opposing Michele Bachmann and a regular commenter here. Aubrey is a psychology professor and a member of the International Society of Political Psychology.

Immelman's analysis of voting patterns in Bachmann's district is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand why Bachmann gets elected, and for anyone who hopes to see her "dumped" in the next election.

When I say "must-read," I mean that candidates, campaign managers, political activists, reporters, editors, political bloggers and voters must read it to understand how congressional elections in the Sixth District work (or don't work.)

If you're a voter or a person interested in seeing Bachmann "dumped", reading Immelman's analysis will help you to decide which candidate you'll ultimately support or donate to. If you live outside our district, you'll begin to understand why it's so hard for people in the district to beat an extremist screwball and proven liar.

It's not just Immelman's opinions, it's the research that he bases his opinions on. Ignore his findings at your peril. And: it's brief. It packs a lot of hard information into a concise format.

Here is a one paragraph excerpt:

"The ceiling level of support for a Democratic candidate in terms of party-political affiliation in the 6th District in a best-case scenario is reflected in a SurveyUSA poll conducted October 20-21, 2008 in the immediate aftermath of incumbent U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s October 17 fiasco on MSNBC “Hardball” with Chris Matthews. In that poll, Democratic nominee Elwyn Tinklenberg led Bachmann 47 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent support for unendorsed Independence Party (IP) candidate Bob Anderson and 2 percent undecided."

...and that's as good as it got for Democrats against Bachmann, in that race. The piece is full of facts like that; facts Bachmann opponents and election reporters need to know, going into the next race.

The piece can be read here. It is part one of a two part series by Immelman. The next part will be his analysis of the candidates in the race. (Aubrey has made a professional reputation for himself via his studies of prominent political personalities. It will be interesting to read his observations about Clark, Reed, etc.--especially given the fact that Aubrey himself has been a candidate in this race.)

Dave Mindeman of mnpACT! also has an analysis of voting patterns in the Sixth District. I didn't get as much out of it as Immelman's piece because it's mainly about the IP. The "Big E" over at MN Progressive project found Mindeman's analysis "brilliant" and it is interesting. But if you read Dump Bachmann you know that Mindeman is discussing things and making arguments that we've been discussing and making here for years. Interesting stats, though, if you like that sort of thing.

Tarryl Clark Statement

From Andrea Mokros (who is, I guess, Senator Clark's "press liason":)

Date: Tue, Aug 4, 2009 at 3:18 PM
Subject: STATEMENT OF SENATOR TARRYL CLARK

STATEMENT OF SENATOR TARRYL CLARK

Saint Cloud, MN - State Senator Tarryl Clark, candidate for Congress
in Minnesota's 6th District, issued the following statement today
regarding El Tinklenberg's withdrawl from the 6th District race:

"From day one, El and I have shared the common goal of changing the
6th District's representation in Congress. El knows first-hand from
his work just how much is at stake for the working families and small
businesses across Minnesota. I thank El for his dedication and public
service, and know he will continue to be a leader in our community."

MPR Polinaut: Tinklenberg drops Bachmann challenge

Posted at 11am. Read it. Now, at Polinaut.


http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/polinaut/archive/2009/08/tinklenberg_dro.shtml

And post a comment there, too. They usually don't get many comments, at Polinaut.

Query: is this good news or bad news?

I know it's good news if you're a Tarryl Clark fan. Me: I have mixed feeling about it. Remember that the whole premise of a Tinklenberg candidacy was that he was "less liberal" than most Democrats. This was thought to be an advantage during a run against Bachmann in a congressional district dominated by conservative voters. The idea was that Tinklenberg, a Blue Dog, would run competitively than a more liberal DFL'r.

If it's Clark for the DFL--is she too liberal to win this conservative district? If you answer, remember to balance your political idealism with a healthy respect for the numbers of conservative and liberal voters in the district.

How about Reed? She has a couple of cards to play. Battle Clark for the DFL nod, or run as an Independent.

Who can cut into the 10% of voters that maverick candidate Bob Anderson netted in the last election? Anyone?

As for me: I'm grateful to ET for bowing out. I'm taking his stated reasons for doing so at face value: he wants to prevent a deadly fight between Dems next year--something that could only ensure Bachmann's re-election. We might end up with that kind of fight anyway, but at this writing I admire Tinklenberg for refusing to start it.

Clark almost (not quite) nails the Bachmann issue...

...in that letter announcing her candidacy, published yesterday on this blog. Here's what she's got to say about MB:

For the past few years, the 6th District's representation in Congress has been about missed opportunities. We've watched opportunities slip away - opportunities to build our local infrastructure, to modernize our transportation system, and to create good jobs and a strong business climate.

It's time to deliver more than a sound bite. Representative Bachmann's biggest accomplishments are creating controversy instead of creating good jobs, and working the talk show circuit instead of helping working families...

That's pretty good. The first paragraph I quoted there is about how much Bachmann non-representation has *cost the people of the district.* Bachmann's knee-jerk special interest votes, failure to use her committee assignments to regulate financial markets--all of that hurt people in and out of her district. Bachmann actually bragged about how she refused to bring home some of the federal tax dollars her constituents pay. Bachmann's mindless "I won't seek federal money for my district" ideology cost her constituents real jobs, real opportunity to weather a bad economy. Clark might have also mentioned the chronic high rate of home foreclosures in the Sixth District, which is disgraceful.

The second paragraph is also pretty good: it is true that Bachmann is more interested in being a notorious national figure than in creating jobs and helping working families. After nearly ten years in government, Bachmann is more famous for what she says than for anything she's actually achieved. And that's true whether you're a conservative or a liberal or a whatever.

It's amazing that Bachmann gets a pass on the talk show circuit when she's called on to comment on economic matters--isn't it? An informed interviewer could demolish her by letting her start in on her conservative talking points--and then ask her about the rate of home foreclosures in the Sixth since she's been in office, compared to other Minnesota districts. If she really is credible on the subject of how to fix the economy--why is the rate of Minnesota home foreclosures highest in *her* district? But they don't ask her that, so she gets a pass and continues to spout conservative country club economics on TV and radio--with impunity.

There's a "heads up" for the Bachmann staffers who read this blog. You might want to get her ready to answer that one, in case she ever runs into an interviewer who actually knows something about what's going on down on the ground here.

The reason that Clark's letter doesn't "nail it," is that she makes no allusion to what every one of her supporters already knows about Bachmann: that Bachmann is a nut, liar, and bigot. This has been noted time and again in national political reporting on our district, and this year it has been alluded to in more than one Minnesota daily paper. But Clark is trying to keep it positive, I guess.

You can read the rest of Clark's letter in Avidor's post, here.

Profile of Maureen Reed in the U of M paper

Some biographical information and "my important issues" stuff in this article.

Excerpt:

Reed said she is passionate about healthcare and education.

“When President Obama got elected and put healthcare reform on the front burner of the national agenda, I thought, ‘This is where I can contribute,’” she said. “I know the area, I know we can fix it, I am certain we can fix it, and I’m certain it has to be fixed.”

Reed wants students to know that education is important to her.

“[Students’] success and their future prospects are really important to me, and to all of us, not just to me,” she said. “We need our young folks to be very successful, our country needs that and I’m glad it can happen and it will happen.”

She was on the U Board of Regents for eight years. When she was a youth, she wanted to go to veterinary school--but they didn't let women in the program back then, so she became a people doctor. She ran for lieutenant governor as Independence Party candidate in 2006. She ice skates. She's raised a lot of money for this race against Michele, but we already knew that.

Commenter Liz: "Tarryl Clark announced today on MPR."

...but I can't find any confirmation on MPR's Polinaut site or the Google news wires, at this moment.

Commenter Liz wrote in twice this afternoon to say that she heard Clark "officially announce," on the radio. Commenter Liz reported twice that Clark "officially announced," at one p.m. today on MPR.

I will keep looking for confirmation of this. Did anyone else hear Clark "officially announce?"

All I can find on MPR right now is the same story that we have already been running for days--that Clark has filed FEC papers etc. that indicate she is running.

We did that here, already. If anyone else has a source for "Clark has officially announced" (which is different from just filing the papers to run) please send a link. If she has "officially announced," the timing of her "roll-out" is interesting--because this is the day after Tinklenberg began his big pitch for funds on the Kos.

Elwyn Tinklenberg makes his pitch to the Daily Kos

...and gets a very positive reaction, for the most part. I'm writing this shortly after midnight, Minnesota time. In the "Recommended Diaries" section of the Kos (one of the most widely read political blogs in the United States) is piece by Elwyn himself, announcing his run against Bachmann.

It's generated 225 comments so far; a respectable total. And diaries don't get elevated to the coveted "Recommended Diaries" list without the intervention of Kos staffers, so they are paying attention, too. (Wrong, according to Karl in our comments thread.)

Tinklenberg aide Dana Houle is in the comments thread to the Tinklenberg announcement, fielding the occasional question from commenters. Most of the comments are quite supportive, some Kos readers are even donating money to Elwyn on the strength his announcement on the blog. As you may know, the Kos readership and other liberal/progressive blogs did an outstanding job raising funds for Tinklenberg in the final weeks of his last contest with Bachmann. Donations were received in small amounts from regular folks who hailed from every state in the union.

The incident that triggered the donations was not something Tinklenberg did. It was something Michele Bachmann did: her appearance on Chris Matthew's Hardball news show. When she called for a media investigation of her fellow congressmen and senators to check for anti-Americanism, the outrage at the Kos and other blogs was palpable--and readers reached for their checkbooks and credit cards.

Tinklenberg is an intelligent politician. So his diary in the Kos does not contain his other announcement: that he does not intend to abide by the decision of the DFL in the primary, if they do not select him to run against Bachmann. Pointing *that* out, would cause some people on the Kos to put away their checkbooks and credit cards--and generate quite a bit of hate mail in the comment thread, I suppose.

I doubt that very many of the commenters on the Kos tonight are from Minnesota. Their contempt for Bachmann and kooky lies is obvious, but so is their lack of knowledge about the strange election dynamics we have here in the Sixth District. A few commenters are critical of Tinklenberg, but that seems to be because he's a Blue Dog or because he failed to beat an obvious kook, despite all the help he received last time.

None of the Tinklenberg criticisms so far cite his "I'm going to ignore the Dem decision on the nominee, unless it's me" stand. None of the more than two hundred comments so far explain the possible consequences of that decision or the effect of the independence voters on the election.

Neither Tinklenberg nor Dana Houle seem inclined to mention those unpleasant realities to Kos readers tonight. I'm not wading into that comment thread to explain those issues either, because it's entirely possible that ET may end up being the Dem nominee again and I'm certainly not going to be the one to try to discredit a likely Dem candidate.

Tinklenberg and his managers have obviously decided to go after the netroots support now, before Clark officially announces. That's probably wise, from the ET camp's point of view. Though Clark has filed, she hasn't "rolled out" yet--and a strong show of financial and moral support from the netroots is going to be critical for any Dem candidate hoping to defeat Bachmann.

We can't blame Kos readers and editors for being naive or ill-informed about the election dynamics of the Sixth District of Minnesota. Bachmann's craziness makes headlines around the country, the election dynamics of the Sixth District don't. I would wager that most Minnesotans who live in and outside the Sixth District don't understand why a Bachmann victory is the statistical way to bet. Most of the Minnesota political press doesn't bother to explain how the different political interests in the district can generate a Bachmann plurality despite the awful state of her district. If most of the local reporters don't know or report, how could people outside the state understand?

I have explained election dynamics on the Kos before, but I'm just another diarist there--one of thousands. A *very* good day for one of my articles on the Kos generates only from ninety to a hundred comments, nothing like the attention that Tinklenberg is receiving tonight. Even if the Kos community doesn't have all the information it needs to make a good decision about which candidate to support, its heart is in the right place: they know what Bachmann is, and they want to help us get rid of her.

Commenter: more evidence that Tarryl Clark is in the race

Tonight Dump Bachmann commenter and Sixth District Congressional candidate Aubrey Immelman says it's fair to say that Taryll Clark is now a candidate in the Sixth District race against Bachmann.

Immelman presented the evidence for Clark's entry into the race in one of the comment threads this evening, and it is reprinted here:

State Sen. Tarryl Clark can now fairly be called a candidate for the U.S. House seat in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District.

The Federal Election Commission website shows the FEC received Clark's Statement of Organization (FEC Form 1) and Statement of Candidacy (FEC Form 2), dated July 17, via USPS Express mail.

The title of Clark's campaign committee is Friends of Tarryl (Clark). According to the paperwork, Clark is filing as a Democrat to run for U.S. House of Representatives in Minnesota's 6th Congressional District.

Clark's filings can be viewed on the FEC website at: http://herndon1.sdrdc.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?_29030121960+0

The FEC filing does not mean that Clark is formally a candidate. For that (i.e., to get ballot access) the prospective candidate has to file an Affidavit of Candidacy with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State during the official filing period the first two weeks of July 2010.

The primary purpose of the FEC filing is to raise and spend money in excess of $5,000 for a political campaign in accordance with federal election law.

What does Clark's entry into the race say about the prospect of defeating Bachmann? To answer that question, I suggest a reading of Bill Prendergast's assessment at: http://dumpbachmann.blogspot.com/2009/07/some-good-signs-for-our-side.html

Thanks for the info, websites, and explication, Aubrey. While other media sleep, the Dump Bachmann readers come back with the story.