Strib article on the Sixth District Race

Pat Doyle, sent out to cover the race against Bachmann, comes back with this. Some good background on the upcoming race, some lovely pictures of the candidates.

And former candidates. Elwyn Tinklenberg's picture is there, but no picture of Bob Anderson--whose maverick, unendorsed Independence Party candidacy picked up ten per cent of the electorate last time and cost Tinklenberg the race.

Doyle reports that the district has "an independent streak" and that former candidate Tinklenberg received the Independence Party's endorsement. But Doyle doesn't report the fact that a maverick candidacy by someone running as "the Independence Party candidate" can keep Bachmann in office for another term, next time around. I don't know if Doyle leaves that out on purpose, or if Doyle just doesn't know, or if the people Doyle interviews are trying to keep Doyle "in the dark" about what's actually going on in the race Doyle's reporting on.

But the Strib has got to start reporting what readers and politicians already know about this race, if they want to stay "au courant" with the news. Tonight I'm going to email Pat Doyle Aubrey Immelman's profile of Sixth District voter demographics. This will be an attempt to supply Pat and Strib editors with some much needed information about why Bachmann wins. Apparently nobody else wants to tell the Strib this important news.

Here's the part that Doyle and the Strib editors need to learn (by heart):

For historical perspective on the strength of the IP in 6th District congressional races, Dan Becker won 7.5 percent of the vote in 2002; John Binkowski gained 7.8 percent in 2006; and in 2008 Bob Anderson got 10% of the vote. The performance of third-party candidates in the 6th appears to be trending upward. Realistically, it’s difficult to see any plausible scenario in which a Democrat beats Bachmann with a third-party name on the ballot.

Some Democrats have accused the IP of playing a “spoiler” role in 6th District congressional races, throwing the race to the Republican candidate. However, as long as the IP enjoys major-party status in Minnesota (winning at least 5 percent of the vote in statewide races), it’s easy to get ballot access on the IP line. Thus, it’s simply realistic to assume that someone will file as an IP candidate in the 2010 election, whether he or she has the IP endorsement or not – and prospective Democratic candidates should plan accordingly.